Imports of unwrought aluminum alloy decreased by 11.5% cumulatively in the first five months, with Thailand accounting for over a quarter of aluminum scrap imports [SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy]

SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy on June 23

Futures Market: On Friday night, the most-traded AD2511 cast aluminum alloy futures contract opened at 19,665 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 19,725 yuan/mt and a low of 19,665 yuan/mt, before closing at 19,725 yuan/mt. This represented an increase of 85 yuan/mt or 0.43% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 1,103 lots, with open interest at 8,368 lots. Bears were mainly reducing their positions.

Spot-Futures Price Spread Report: According to SMM data, on June 20, the SMM ADC12 spot price was at a theoretical premium of 315 yuan/mt over the closing price of the most-traded cast aluminum alloy futures contract (AD2511) at 10:15.

Industry Updates: (1) Aluminum Alloy Imports and Exports: According to customs data, in May 2025, China's imports of unwrought aluminum alloy reached 97,000 mt, down 12.1% YoY and up 11.8% MoM. From January to May 2025, cumulative imports totaled 464,900 mt, down 11.5% YoY. In May 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum alloy were 24,200 mt, up 0.3% YoY and 46.1% MoM. From January to May 2025, cumulative exports were 94,500 mt, down 1.4% YoY. (2) Aluminum Scrap Imports: According to customs data, in May 2025, China's domestic aluminum scrap imports were approximately 159,700 mt, up about 2.8% YoY. In terms of import sources, the main countries and regions for domestic aluminum scrap imports in May were Thailand, the UK, Japan, and the US, with Thailand accounting for 26.8% of total domestic imports.

Aluminum Scrap Market: On Friday, primary aluminum spot prices fell by 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, with SMM A00 spot closing at 20,720 yuan/mt. Aluminum scrap market prices generally pulled back. Regionally, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Shandong closely tracked aluminum prices, with price adjustments ranging from 50-100 yuan/mt. In Henan, Foshan, and Guizhou, price adjustments lagged behind aluminum prices, with prices remaining flat. By product, prices for baled UBC and shredded aluminum tense scrap both pulled back by 100 yuan/mt from the previous day. Considering the difficulty in actual shipments, aluminum scrap suppliers adopted a cautious wait-and-see attitude towards price adjustments amid rising aluminum prices. This week, the aluminum scrap market is expected to continue the pattern of "fluctuating at highs with product differentiation," maintaining an overall strong trend.

Overseas Markets: The CIF import price for ADC12 remained at $2,420-2,450/mt. The import spot price decreased by 100 yuan/mt to around 19,200 yuan/mt, slightly widening the immediate import loss to the range of 600 yuan/mt. The domestic tax-excluded quote for ADC12 in Thailand remained stable at 82 Thai baht/kg.

Inventory: According to SMM statistics, on June 20, the combined daily social inventory of secondary aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi was 18,481 mt, an increase of 255 mt from the previous trading day.

Summary: Last Friday, SMM A00 aluminum prices fell by 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day to 20,720 yuan/mt. Domestic SMM ADC12 prices also decreased by 50 yuan/mt to 19,900-20,200 yuan/mt. As aluminum prices continued to decline, market quotes diverged. Some enterprises actively lowered their quotes due to sluggish demand, while others remained firm due to cost pressures. Overall, the rigid support from costs and weak demand during the off-season continued to interact, leading to a narrow fluctuation in ADC12 prices. As the off-season deepens, it is expected that ADC12 prices will continue to fluctuate rangebound in the short term. Continuous attention should be paid to the circulation of raw materials and the marginal fluctuations in demand during the off-season.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make cautious decisions and should not rely on this as a replacement for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]

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